SchusterWatch #860 (09/14/2026)
Risk-Off sentiment: IPOX®
Indexes pressured by Oil,
Rates and Inflation fears.
GINDEX® Growth Infusion U.S. (GNDX) extends YTD lead vs. SPX/NDX.
Big Movers: ROIV, DOCN,
COHR, TPRO IM, LTMC IM, CLS, 2513 HK.
IPOs: $3 bn raised globally. Nuclear firm Holtec leads expected deal flow.
SUMMARY: Risk-off sentiment pressured most IPOX® Indexes last week as oil surged above $100/barrel, bond yields rose and inflation concerns resurfaced. Company-specific catalysts drove performance divergence, with positive clinical data, AI infrastructure demand and strength in IPO-focused M&A dominating, as the GINDEX® Growth Infusion U.S. (GNDX) remains at +20.25% YTD, well ahead of major U.S. benchmarks.
IPOX® U.S.: The IPOX® 100 U.S. (IPXO) declined -1.65% to +10.26% YTD, lagging the S&P 500 (SPX: -0.80%) by -85 bps for the week. 69% of holdings declined, with the average (median) stock shedding -1.82% (-1.73%). Biopharmaceutical company Roivant Sciences (ROIV US: +16.86%) led gains following positive Phase Two trial results, while AI infrastructure plays DigitalOcean (DOCN US: +9.32%) and Coherent (COHR US: +8.34%) rose on AI cloud optimism and stronger optical networking demand, respectively. On the downside, corporate travel platform Navan (NAVN US: -24.33%) slumped as rising expenses overshadowed strong revenue growth, while biotech Alumis (ALMS US: -17.30%) fell after a failed lupus trial triggered further derisking.
INTERNATIONAL: International IPOX® performance was mixed last week, with the IPOX® International (IPXI) declining -2.18% to +16.08% YTD as higher global yields and renewed pressure on growth stocks weighed on sentiment. In contrast, the IPOX® 100 Europe (IPOE) edged up +0.18% to +5.69% YTD. Italian semiconductor equipment maker Technoprobe (TPRO IM: +12.89%) gained as growth at key customer TSMC strengthened semiconductor demand expectations, while Lottomatica (LTMC IM: +12.61%) rose on optimism around synergies from its Cirsa combination. Canadian electronics manufacturing provider Celestica (CLS US: +10.95%) advanced on continued AI infrastructure optimism, while HD Hyundai Heavy Industries (329180 KP: +9.74%) gained after investment plans supported its growth outlook. Hong Kong technology exposure lagged as Z AI (2513 HK: -26.23%) dropped after a large financing package raised dilution concerns, while Iluvatar CoreX (9903 HK: -18.77%) and Biren Technology (6082 HK: -14.76%) fell on profitability and valuation concerns.
IPOX® SPECIALITY STRATEGIES: We note with interest the continued relative strength of the GINDEX® Growth Infusion U.S. (GNDX). The IPO M&A-focused strategy declined just -0.42% last week versus -0.80% for the S&P 500 and -0.59% for the Nasdaq 100. At +20.25% YTD, GNDX is ahead of the S&P 500 (+11.85%) by +840 bps and the Nasdaq-100 (+16.31%) by +394 bps.
THE IPOX® SPAC INDEX: The Index edged down -0.51% last week, reducing year-to-date gains to +6.44%. As in the IPOX® 100 U.S., pharma firm Roivant Sciences (ROIV US: +16.86%) was the best performer. Cardiometabolic drug developer NewAmsterdam Pharma (NAMS US: -10.24%) was the worst performer, caught in a broader biopharma selloff. Five SPACs announced merger targets, including ARC Group I (ARCL US) with Kuala Lumpur-based financial services company Firstborn Top Capital. No SPACs completed business combinations and no new SPAC IPOs launched in the U.S. during the shortened trading week.
ECM REVIEW: 22 firms went public globally last week, raising a combined $3.06 billion. New listings gained an average of +51.09% from offer price (Median: +11.92%). Accessible deal flow was led by Hong Kong, where semiconductor memory and storage products company Shenzhen Longsys Electronics (9976 HK) raised approximately $903 million. Commercial service robotics company Excelland Robotics Wuxi (3231 HK) raised $83 million, while medical device maker Medcaptain Medical Technology (2041 HK) raised $77 million. In Japan, workplace food services provider KOMPEITO (618A JP) raised approximately $42 million.
OUTLOOK: This week, nuclear energy technology services company Holtec International (HNUC US, $850 million) leads expected global IPO issuance, with its Nasdaq debut scheduled for September 18, together with homeowners and residential flood insurer Orion180 (OIG US, up to $340 million). In Reuters coverage, IPOX® Research Associate Lukas Muehlbauer highlighted the importance of early fall IPO performance in setting the tone for subsequent issuance, with strong debuts potentially encouraging more companies to come public. Australian drone and defense manufacturer Innovaero Technologies (INN AU, $28 million) is also lined up for September 18, while Japan's commercial interior architecture solutions provider Oliver Corporation (619A JP, $142 million) is scheduled to debut on September 16.
