SchusterWatch #786 (5/5/2025)
Earnings Trump Rates: IPOX® 100 US adds +7% to +5% YTD last week.
Surge extends to other IPOX® Markets. IPOX® China Global in focus.
US Stocks setting fresh All-Time Highs: DRS, KRMN, NRG, NIC.
Amid return of risk appetite: Aspen, American Integrity lined up.
IPOX® WEEKLY REVIEW: The IPOX® Indexes continued their massive run-up last week with select products recording big gains as the impact of strong earnings for select IPOX® Holdings and smoother sailing on the geopolitical front trumped higher US yields across the board.
In the US, the IPOX® 100 US (ETF: FPX) surged +6.85% to +5.01% YTD (+25.19% Y/Y), well ahead of the US benchmarks and now doubling the Y/Y performance of the S&P 500 (ETF: SPY), benchmark for US Stocks.
83% of our portfolio holdings rose, with the average (median) equally-weighted firm gaining +5.20% (+4.02%), lagging the applied market-cap weighted IPOX® 100 US (ETF: FPX) for a 2nd week in a row. With 36% of portfolio holdings having reported, the highly positively skewed post-earnings return distribution with some outsized postive returns was a notable feature. Firms across the market cap spectrum soared, including language app developer Duolingo (DUOL US: +27.39%), health care services provider Brightspring Health (BTSG US: +23.35%), Best-in-Class global alternative energy stock Carrier (CARR US: +19.10%), pork producer Smithfield (SFD US: +15.07%) and education platform Roblox (RBLX US: +11.28%). We also note the big week in SpaceX competitor AST Spacemobile (ASTS US: +11.20%) after Alphabet reported a 3.8% position in the firm.
The IPOX® Strategies focusing on exposure domiciled outside the US recorded strong returns as well, led by yet another exceptional week for the IPOX® Global China (CNI). By pooling more than $1 trillion in total market cap tied to a diversified list of the most liquid and best performing globally traded Chinese New Listings, including IPOs, Spin-offs and select IPO M&A,, the strategy surged +6.99% to +29.23% YTD, almost triple the YTD performance of the MSCI China (MXCN). Portfolio holdings setting fresh highs had major product news and included biotech SKB (6990 HK: +17.02%) and consumer play PopMart International (9992 HK: +14.74%). Strong sentiment extended to Europe, with the broad IPOX® 100 Europe (ETF: FPXE) benefiting from the strong week in some of the US-traded holdings, including AI play Oddity Tech (ODD US: +42.96%), beleaguered Dutch biotech NewAmsterdam (NAMS US: +14.33%), British semiconductor maker ARM (ARM US: +8.76%) and Finland-based high-end sporting goods maker Amer Sports (AS US: +6.33%). Germany’s luxury car maker Porsche (P911 GY: -3.99%) lagged for one more week on depressed sentiment for European car makers. Amid the recent slump across a select list of Saudi IPOs, a good week for some of our Abu-Dhabi-traded holdings pushed the IPOX® MENA (IPEV) to a positive week with the dividend heavy portfolio recovering to -7.92% YTD.
SPACS ARE BACK: The Index rose 3.77% last week, to -8.53%. YTD. Telehealth platform Hims & Hers Health (HIMS US: 45.32%) surged following its partnership with Novo Nordisk. In contrast, GeneDx (GNDX US: -39.44%) plunged, despite the genetic testing firm beating on earnings. Black Hawk Acquisition (BKHA US: 0.19%) announced a merger with early-stage cancer therapeutics firm Vesicor Therapeutics. Cantor Equity Partners (CEP US: 49.21%) continued to rally after last week’s merger announcement with bitcoin treasury Twenty One Capital, boosted further by rising bitcoin price and Arizona’s passage of a state bitcoin reserve bill. OTC-traded SPAC Iris Acquisition (IRAA US) completed business combination with pre-clinical stage biopharmaceutical company Liminatus Pharma (LIMN US) and uplisted to Nasdaq. SPAC activity is accelerating again. Nine new SPACs were launched in the U.S. last week, marking the highest weekly total since the peak of the SPAC boom in 2021.
ECM DEALS: 8 firms went public last week, raising $142 million. The average (median) equally weighted IPO added +11.89% (+5.92%) from offer to Friday’s close. Activity in accessible markets included: MA-based Winchester Bancorp (WSBK US: -7.53%, $40m offer) and Chinese insurance broker Yuanbao (YB US: -0.73%, $30m). This week, IPO activity is led by two insurance listings: Aspen Insurance (AHL US) returns to the NYSE after its 2019 take-private by Apollo, targeting a raise of $330 million at a valuation of up to $2.85 billion. It lists alongside Florida-focused American Integrity Insurance (AII US, $110m offer) on Thursday. Covering Aspen's return to market, IPOX® Research Analyst Lukas Muehlbauer commented in Reuters on the current appeal of offerings in the sector. Read the article here. Three IPOs are lined up in HK, including: electric dump truck firm Breton (1333 HK, $30m), fruit tea chain Auntea Jenny (2589 HK, $32m), and solar cell maker Drinda New Energy (2865 HK, $200m).
Visit the IPOX® Calendar for this week’s listing overview and read
The IPOX® Update for the latest IPO News.
