SchusterWatch #864 (10/05/2026)
IPOX® 100 U.S. (ETF: FPX) has good start to Q4, gains while S&P 500 declines.
Japan focus: IPOX® Japan (IPJP) extends YTD rally to +70.94% YTD.
Stocks in focus: RXO, Andersen Group, Twilio, Technoprobe.
IPOs: Oura postpones $2.1 B deal. Three sizable international listings lined up.
SUMMARY: IPOX® traded well-supported into the weekend, with key strategies including the IPOX® 100 U.S. (IPXO), GINDEX® Growth Infusion U.S. (GNDX) and IPOX® Japan (IPJP) rising notably, while benchmarks fell and yields on sovereign bonds continued to gain across developed markets.
IPOX® U.S.: The IPOX® 100 U.S. (IPXO) added +0.54% to +10.25% YTD, leading the S&P 500 (SPX) by +81 bps. last week, as shorts covered after month-end and the index held its key 200-day moving average despite another slump in U.S. bonds. In the absence of earnings news, 53 of 100 portfolio holdings rose, with the average (median) stock adding +0.54% (+0.24%), exactly in line with the applied market-cap-weighted IPOX® 100 U.S. (IPXO). Logistics service provider RXO (ROX US: +18.14%), recently added specialty biotech MBX Bioscience (MBX US: +9.10%) and security software maker Rubrik (RBRK US: +8.24%) stood out, while health tech BillionToOne (BLLN US: -13.96%) gave back some of its recent gains. We also note the addition of IPO M&A cloud computing platform operator Twilio (TWLO US: +6.81%) to the S&P 500 (SPX), effective Tuesday, Oct. 6, while the IPOX® 100 U.S. (IPXO) avoided exposure to AI infrastructure play Cerebras (CBRS US: -19.50%), whose shares fell below the $185 offer price for the first time since its 05/26 IPO.
Figure: IPO Investing with the IPOX® 100 U.S. (ETF: FPX) since 08/2004
IPOX® EX-U.S.: Markets outside the U.S. traded well-supported, with the IPOX® International (ETF: FPXI) advancing to +15.22% YTD, outperforming its benchmark by +172 bps. last week. Amid weak European equities pressured by fears over French sovereign debt and another tough week for Europe’s luxury stocks, continued positive momentum in the IPOX® Japan (IPJP: +0.62%) and strength among European specialty exposure drove the good showing. Portfolio holdings leading the way included semiconductor testing machine makers Italy’s Technoprobe (TPRO IM: +16.32%) and Japan’s Advantest (6857 JP: +13.62%), which both closed out the trading week at or near their all-time highs.
IPOX® SPAC INDEX: The Index declined -1.61% last week, reducing year-to-date gains to +2.34%. Digital banking platform Dave (DAVE US: +6.68%) was the best performer, recovering from its recent selloff. Oilfield services provider National Energy Services Reunited (NESR US: -23.22%) declined most after management lowered its outlook for the second half of the year. Five SPACs announced merger targets, including Bold Eagle Acquisition (BEAG US) with defense technology company REDLattice. Three SPACs completed business combinations, including Viking Acquisition I (VACI US) with space intelligence and data analytics company NorthStar Earth & Space (NSTR US). One new SPAC IPO launched in the U.S. during the week.
ECM REVIEW & OUTLOOK: 40 firms went public globally last week, raising $3.9 billion. New listings added an average of +41.22% from offer price to Friday’s close (Median: +6.09%). In the U.S., data center infrastructure systems provider Accelevation (ACCV US: -1.56%) raised $540 million, while smart ring maker Oura postponed. Hong Kong dominated anew, led by photovoltaic equipment maker RoboTechnik Intelligent Tech. (3757 HK: -8.85%), raising $660 million, and circuit board maker Kinwong Electronic (3228 HK: +6.47%), raising $650 million. Hong Kong-listed specialty chemicals maker Red Avenue New Materials (9607 HK: -8.36%) raised $382 million, while robotics plays Direct Drive Tech (6731 HK: +13.43%, $138 million) and LiDAR systems provider Camsense Technologies (6802 HK: +92.01%, $87 million) also went public.
This week, three sizable IPOs are lined up globally. Singaporean crude oil tanker shipping operator Volare Shipping (VLCC NO) leads expected issuance, seeking to raise $501 million in Norway. Finnish counter-drone detection and defense systems provider Sensofusion (SENSO FH) is targeting $341 million, while Chinese chipmaker ESWIN Computing Technology (1256 HK) is expected to raise $318 million in Hong Kong.
