SchusterWatch #857 (08/24/2026)
Jitters over U.S. Bonds pressure most IPOX® Indexes ahead of Xi visit.
Big value in high yielding IPOs as IPOX® 7% Divi Strategy hits fresh High.
Big Movers: CRCL, RIVN, DPM CT, WCP CT, AMBEA SS, NANO FP, CCL AU.
IPOs: Investors leave money on the table in Lyntris IPO. Quiet IPO market.
SUMMARY: Jitters over elevated U.S. bond yields and fears over the sustained rise in real interest rates and subsequently higher equity risk (VIX: +6.18%) pressured unseasoned stocks last week, with some IPOX® Indexes among the most affected. Select IPOX® Specialty Strategies rose anew, with the IPOX® High Dividend 7% (IXSM) closing out the light-volume trading week at a record.
UNITED STATES: The IPOX® 100 U.S. Index (IPXO), tracked by the First Trust U.S. Equity Opportunities ETF (Ticker: FPX) and CME IPOX® 100 U.S. Emini Futures (IPOU6), e.g., declined by -3.99% to +12.23% YTD last week, lagging the S&P 500 (SPX), which fell to +12.11% YTD. 69% of holdings rose, with the average (median) equally weighted stock recording a loss of -2.43% (-2.20%), better than when compared to the applied market-cap weighted IPOX® 100 U.S. (IPXO). Crypto- and health-care-related exposure rose most, including Circle Internet Group (CRCL US: +22.88%), Galaxy Digital (GLXY US: +9.14%) and CG Oncology (CGON US: +6.37%), while S&P 500 (SPX) inclusion candidate U.S. social networker Reddit (RDDT US: -13.93%) handed back its announcement pop, with investor David Tepper disclosing a position in the firm. We note with interest the continued relative strength of a large and diversified basket of the most liquid fixed-income securities issued by IPOX® Holdings pooled in the IPOX® Aggregate Bond Index (IPOXTD) vs. long-dated U.S. government debt (ETF: TLT):
Exhibit: IPOX® Aggregate Bond Index (IPOXTD) vs. the performance of the 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) since 01/2024.
INTERNATIONAL: Big gains in metals and miners and select small-caps helped mitigate the impact of weakness across AI-related exposure, with the IPOX® International (ETF: FPXI) dropping by -1.40% to +22.07% YTD, +960 bps ahead of its benchmark YTD. Most upside came from DPM Metals (DPM CT: +12.56%), Whitecap Resources (WCP CT: +6.27%) and spin-off Valterra Platinum (VALT LN: +5.26%), while biotechs Ambea (AMBEA SS: +22.52%) and Nanobiotix (NANO FP: +17.77%) ranked as the best performers in the IPOX® 100 Europe (ETF: FPXE). Amid the expected jump in Australian IPO activity, we highlight the fresh post-IPO high in Australian payments and data solutions provider AUD 1.2 billion 11/2024 IPO Cuscal (CCL AU: +8.82%), a portfolio holding in the IPOX®-actively managed Rakuten Global IPO Fund, which is available in the Japanese market.
THE IPOX® SPAC INDEX: The Index declined -1.95% last week to +10.58% YTD. Oil and gas producer Permian Resources (PR US: +10.47%) was the best performer as rising oil prices supported the broader energy sector. LiDAR and digital traffic management company Ouster (OUST US: -21.13%) was the worst performer, retreating on profit-taking and insider selling without a material negative company-specific catalyst. Newbury Street II Acquisition (NTWO US) announced a merger with industrial robot safety technology company FORT Robotics. Inflection Point Acquisition III (IPCX US) completed its business combination with packaged mineralized water and atmospheric water generation company Air Water Ventures/A1R Water (WATR US), which began trading. In de-SPAC M&A, Universal Health Services (UHS US) completed its acquisition of 06/2021 de-SPAC online mental health platform Talkspace (TALK US).
ECM REVIEW: 27 firms went public globally last week, raising $3.05 billion. New listings gained an average of +56.23% from offer price to Friday’s close (median: +32.65%). U.S. defense communications firm Lyntris (LYNX US: -10.23%) led accessible deal flow by size, raising $298 million. IPOX® CEO Josef Schuster commented in Reuters coverage, highlighting the firm's private equity-backed structure. In South Korea, biotech Ingenia Therapeutics (950260 KS: +31.42%, $39 million) debuted strongly, while waterproof textile firm Kido Industrial (282620 KS: -34.58%, $31 million) fell sharply. Australian sovereign AI inference-as-a-service provider SCX.ai (SCX AU: -16.67%, $28 million) also finished below its offer price.
Amid the late-August lull, the IPO calendar remains quiet. The only sizable confirmed deal is fabless semiconductor designer Ingenic Semiconductor (3223 HK, $410 million). Fast fashion giant Shein, previously rumored to list in Hong Kong by the end of the week, is now targeting a listing around September 1 at a valuation of at least $26 billion, with UBS among the cornerstone investors. September could shape up as another exceptionally busy month as frontier AI lab Anthropic is rumored to file publicly by the end of August, and SoftBank-backed data center developer SB Energy is eyeing a late-September listing at a valuation of approximately $50 billion.
