SchusterWatch #854 (08/03/2026)
Rates Trump Earnings: IPOX® in broad retreat as U.S. yields soar anew.
Technicals: IPOX® 100 U.S. (IPXO) closes above 200-day moving average.
Big Movers: SNDK, GEV, 6857 JP, SN, ANDR AV, PCO PW, DWS GY.
IPOs: U.S. and APAC IPOs all get done. Several U.S. biotechs lined up.
WEEKLY OVERVIEW: Despite overall strong IPOX® earnings, soaring long-term U.S. rates above the critical 5% mark continued to weigh on the innovation-focused IPOX® Indexes more than on other benchmarks last week.
UNITED STATES: The innovation-focused IPOX® 100 U.S. Index (IPXO), tracked by the First Trust U.S. Equity Opportunities ETF (Ticker: FPX) and an array of institutional products, slumped -3.06% to +8.44% YTD last week, lagging the S&P 500 (SPX) by -97 bps YTD. 63% of portfolio holdings fell, with the average (median) equally weighted stock shedding -1.77% (-0.87%), significantly outperforming the applied market-cap-weighted IPOX® 100 U.S. (IPXO). Large swings in the heavyweights, such as hedge fund-heavy spin-off memory chip maker Sandisk (SNDK US: -15.43%) and electrification leader GE Vernova (GEV US: -2.41%), characterized trading, with the index managing to close the week above the 200-trading-day moving average. Thus far, among the 30 firms that have reported (40.73% of weight), 80% exceeded adjusted EPS expectations, with 93.3% beating revenue estimates and 92.3% surpassing EBITDA forecasts.
INTERNATIONAL: The IPOX® International (IPXI), tracked by the First Trust International Equity Opportunities ETF (Ticker: FPXI), declined -1.92% to +16.05% YTD, remaining +631 bps ahead of the international market YTD. Amid earnings and massive swings in daily sentiment across Asian markets, technology stocks traded on both sides of the spectrum. While a slew of recent China-linked AI exposure slumped anew, such as semiconductor maker GigaDevice (3986 HK: -19.19%) and AI play Knowledge Atlas (2513 HK: -20.17%), Japan’s semiconductor testing machine maker Advantest (6857 JP: +12.28%), Chinese appliance maker SharkNinja (SN US: +8.86%), and Canada's ARC Resources (ARX CT: +2.57%) closed out the trading week at fresh all-time highs. Across Europe, tracked by the IPOX® 100 Europe (ETF: FPXE), post-earnings momentum and/or corporate action speculation propelled Austrian financial Andritz (ANDR AV: +5.05%), Polish mass merchant Pepco Group (PCO PW: +4.76%), and ETF provider DWS Group (DWS GY: +3.19%), while technology exposure slumped, including the U.K.'s Arm (ARM US: -7.82%) and Sweden-based Silex Microsystems (SILEX SS: -10.16%).
THE IPOX® SPAC INDEX: The Index declined -1.27% to +6.79% YTD. LiDAR and digital traffic management company Ouster (OUST US: +14.60%) was the best performer before earnings. AI infrastructure and data center power equipment provider Vertiv (VRT US: -16.80%) was the worst performer as broader risk-off sentiment weighed on AI infrastructure stocks, while weaker-than-expected revenue growth and analyst price target cut further pressured shares. Three SPACs announced merger targets, including McKinley Acquisition (MKLY US) with Space-Eyes, a drone detection technology company backed by President Trump's son. No SPACs completed business combinations during the week. In deSPAC M&A, 2020 deSPAC consumer lending platform Open Lending (LPRO US) was taken private by ANV Group. Three new SPAC IPOs launched in the U.S. during the week.
ECM REVIEW: 34 firms went public globally last week, raising a combined $19.3 billion. New listings gained an average of +42.36% from offer price to Friday’s close (Median: +11.33%). Activity was dominated by the hard-to-access mainland China market, where chipmaker CXMT (688825 CH: +523.21%) raised $9.52 billion, The outsized debut made CXMT the most valuable listed company in mainland China. In the U.S., sandwich franchise Jersey Mike’s Subs (JMKE US: +0.00%) raised $1.0 billion, fashion firm Reformation (REF US: +8.13%) raised $211 million, and sleep-apnea specialist Apnimed (APMD US: +56.25%) raised $192 million. IPOX® CEO Josef Schuster emphasized the importance of pricing flexibility, while IPOX® Associate Lukas Muehlbauer and IPOX® VP Kat Liu highlighted continued demand for established brands, financial strength, and customer loyalty. Outside the U.S., Japanese solar-power firm iGrid Solutions (603A JP: -9.09%) raised $51 million.
This week’s U.S. calendar is focused on biotech: Cardiomyopathy therapeutics developer Braveheart Bio (BRVE US, $300 million) leads expected issuance, followed by immune-disease biologics company Attovia Therapeutics (ATTO US, $200 million) and metabolic-disease biotech Vogenx (VOGX US, $75 million). Outside the U.S., intelligent-driving controls provider NASN Intelligent Tech (2261 HK, $82 million) is lined up in Hong Kong. In other IPO news, Reuters quoted IPOX® Associate Lukas Muehlbauer on Westinghouse Electric’s confidential U.S. IPO filing.
