SchusterWatch #837 (4/13/2026)
IPOX® Indexes surge, dodge AI-driven Mean Reversion in most followed Themes.
Weekly All-Time High: IPOX® 100 U.S. (FPX) First to record New High.
>20% Movers: Shanghai Iluvatar, Kioxia, Knowledge Atlas, Sandisk.
Big week for IPOs in the U.S. and Hong Kong: MAIR, ARXS, AVEX, 6656 HK.
OVERVIEW: The IPOX® Indexes surged across the board last week with select Strategies reaching fresh All-Time Highs. Our portfolios displayed maximum upside capture as the global risk Pendulum swung back violently to favor the big AI trade for Semiconductors and Electrification, while Anthropic-driven fears decimated stocks in some of the most followed and heavily invested themes anew, including Cybersecurity and Software: Schumpeter’s “Creation Destruction” is taking hold. Geopolitical appeasement pressured risk (VIX: -19.44%), while U.S. rates receded slightly.
UNITED STATES: Ahead of its 20th anniversary of live trading, the IPOX® 100 U.S. ETF (FPX) rallied +4.42% to +4.07% YTD to close at a fresh weekly All-Time High. 73% of stocks rose with the average (median) equally-weighted firm adding +2.71% (+2.57%), a large 171 bps. less than the applied market cap weighted index. An overweight to younger stocks, including AI-plays Coreweave (CRWV US: +24.03%), Sandisk (SNDK US: +21.41%) and Credo Tech (CRDO US: +17.88%) offset big AI-losses in “Aging Out” stocks, such as key security play Palantir (PLTR US: -13.74%) which continued to strongly mean revert. More generally, IPOX® dodged the big decline in ETFs tied to key tech themes Cybersecurity (IHAK: -6.17%) and Software (IGV US: -7.06%) which also hit a number of active ETFs and Mutual Funds.
INTERNATIONAL/GLOBAL: Other IPOX® Strategies traded even better than when compared to the U.S.: On the back of a surge in the IPOX® Japan (IPJP: +8.52%), IPOX® Global China (CNI: +5.22%) and IPOX® 100 Europe (ETF: FPXE, +4.74%), the IPOX® International (ETF: FPXI) jumped by +8.46% to +14.64% YTD, more than doubling the performance of the hard-to-beat International Market (MXWOU: +4.12%) and recorded its 2nd best weekly absolute and relative gain since since its inception in 2014. Strength across global regions also propelled the super-liquid IPOX® Global 50 (IPGL50) to close out the trading week at a fresh All-Time High, adding +8.08% to +7.91% YTD. Like in the U.S., exposure to firms linked to Semiconductors, pure AI and Electrification drove the excellent showing, such as Shanghai Iluvatar CoreX (9903 HK: +43.22%), Kioxia (285A JP: +42.88%), Knowledge Atlas (2513 HK: +20.15%) and Siemens Energy (ENR GY: +11.70%). The red-hot fertilizer sector underperformed last week, with Nutrien (NTR US: -2.28%) and Fertiglobe (FERTGLB DH: -4.11%) suffering some losses after the big run-up.
THE IPOX® SPAC INDEX: The Index gained +1.78% last week, bringing year-to-date performance to +4.92%. Cipher Digital (CIFR US: +28.94%) was the best performer, supported by a rebound in bitcoin prices alongside continued tailwinds tied to data center demand. Tango Therapeutics (TNGX US: -7.77%) was worst performer, pulling back from recent highs on profit taking. One SPAC announced a merger target, with Fifth Era Acquisition I (FERA US) set to combine with portfolio company Miotal, which focused on ultrafine copper powder, ultrafine nickel wire, and rare earth materials acquisition. Meanwhile, Haymaker Acquisition Corp. 4 completed its business combination with ready-mix concrete logistics and distribution company Suncrete (RMIX US). Two new SPAC IPOs were launched in the U.S. during the week.
ECM OUTLOOK: This week, the IPO market is heating up significantly, headlined by three major U.S. deals. Indoor air purification provider Madison Air Solutions (MAIR US) targets a $2.23 billion raise, joined by aerospace and defense component maker Arxis (ARXS US), aiming for $1.06 billion. Drone manufacturer AEVEX (AVEX US) aims to raise $312 million. Discussing AEVEX and the filing of satellite intelligence firm HawkEye 360 in Reuters, IPOX® Associate Lukas Muehlbauer highlighted that rising global military spending has created supercycle, driving intense thematic investor interest in space and defense.
In Hong Kong, the calendar features green energy storage firm Sigenergy (6656 HK, $562 million), CMOS image sensor designer Gpixel (3277 HK, $332 million), and spatial design software provider Manycore Tech (68 HK, $156 million).
In other ECM news, IPOX® CEO Schuster provided broader commentary to Reuters, cautioning that ahead of SpaceX's anticipated $75 billion mega-IPO, the U.S. remains a “buyer's market” requiring pricing flexibility. In separate coverage regarding National Healthcare Properties, Schuster noted that defensive sectors are gaining traction, with the IPO window wide open for REITs offering uncorrelated stability. Meanwhile, speaking to Bloomberg about European markets, Muehlbauer discussed upcoming IPO lock-up expirations of 2025 vintage companies.
