SchusterWatch #831 (3/2/2026)
Strong earnings propel IPOX® 100 US (ETF: FPX) to another winning week.
Canada and Japan drive IPOX® International (ETF: FPXI) towards Record.
Movers: ECG US, Q US, COCO US, VALT LN, TFPM US, NANO FP, 5838 JP.
U.S. IPO Outlook: Diabetes device maker MiniMed to raise up to $784 million.
IPOX® STRATEGIES OUTPERFORM INTO MONTH-END: Most IPOX® Indexes continued to outpace their respective benchmarks last week. Excellent earnings across the board and a big bid for the U.S. bonds market across the curve provided the necessary impetus to retain positive absolute and relative Momentum.
U.S.: The IPOX® 100 U.S. rose +0.77% to +1.88% YTD, +121 bps. and +93 bps. ahead of the S&P 500 (SPX) and Nasdaq 100 (NDX), benchmarks for U.S. stocks. 51% of portfolio holdings rose, with the average (median) equally weighted stock adding +0.14% (+0.07%), lagging the applied market-cap weighted IPOX® 100 U.S. (IPXO), underlying for the “FPX” ETF. Amid a solid week for the IPOX® heavyweights and earnings for many smaller weighted holdings, the return distribution amongst individual stocks remained wide. Notable movers included Spin-offs Sphere-construction firm Everus Construction (ECG US: +11.75%) and semiconductor materials maker Qnity Electronics (Q US: +11.72%), as well as takeover target and non-alcoholic beverages maker IPO The Vita Coco Inc. (COCO US: +7.60%). Following the release of quarterly reports, recent IPOs such as health care AI-play Tempus AI (TEM US: -8.77%), cloud services provider Coreweave (CRWV US: -10.86%) and fintech Figure Technology (FIGR US: -13.19%) fell sharply.
INTERNATIONAL: Earnings-driven strength extended to most IPOX® Markets outside the US. Top of the list ranked the IPOX® Canada (ICDX) which soared anew to +12.95% YTD, extending the YTD lead vs. the hard-to-beat Canadian market to a massive +607 bps. Gains extended to other key IPOX® Regions & Countries, with IPOX® 100 Europe (ETF: FPXE) and IPOX® Japan (IPJP) closing out the trading week at a fresh weekly all-time High. This helped to add another strong week to the IPOX® International (ETF: FPXI), adding +0.86% to +15.18% YTD, +549 bps. ahead of its benchmark. “Strong earnings and J-Curve dynamics around firms having pursued corporate actions in recent years have been propelling select IPOX® Strategies to a good start to 2026”, said J. Schuster, IPOX® chief portfolio architect. Big movers included London-traded spin-off Valterra Platinum (VALT LN: +23.50%), French biotech Nanobiotix (NANO FP: +18.35%) and Canada’s activist play IPO Triple Flag Precious Metals (TFPM US: +9.68%). Japan’s Rakuten Bank (5838 JP: -29.00%) plunged on restructuring fears.
THE IPOX® SPAC INDEX: The Index rose +2.00% in a volatile week, bringing year-to-date gains to +3.10%. Quantum computing company IonQ (IONQ US: +20.28%) led the way, following strong earnings driven by accelerating quantum adoption and the disclosure of a sizable U.S. pension fund position. Digital finance platform SoFi Technologies (SOFI US: -6.62%) fell, pressured by the broader market sell-off into Friday. Two SPACs announced merger targets including Real Asset Acquisition (RAAQ US), which agreed to combine with Finland-based quantum computing company IQM. OTC-traded Spring Valley Acquisition completed merger with nuclear energy company Eagle Energy Metals (NUCL US) and subsequently uplisted to Nasdaq. Corporate actions among deSPACs also picked up with 10/2021 deSPAC IoT connectivity provider KORE Group (KORE US) agreed to be acquired by Searchlight Capital Partners et al. at $9.25 per share, a +132% premium to their prior non-binding offer of $5.00 per share in November last year. 6 new SPAC IPOs launched in the U.S.
ECM DEALS & OUTLOOK: In a quiet week for equity capital markets, 14 firms went public, raising $688 million. Returns were broadly negative, with new listings dropping an average of -1.68% (Median: -3.37%). In accessible markets, the largest debut came from AI-powered drug discovery pharma Generate Biomedicines (GENB US), which tumbled -20.94% following its $400 million offer. Discussing the deal in Reuters, IPOX® Associate Lukas Muehlbauer noted that while the firm's institutional backing offers credibility, investors are closely scrutinizing its valuation and demanding clear proof of its AI capabilities (read here). Other sizable listings also struggled, such as cell therapy biotech Innovacell (504A JP: -29.33%, $78 million), Japanese gaming and IT-focused HR firm Geekly (505A JP: -12.11%, $39 million), and French luxury real estate manager Rising Stone (ALRIS FP: -10.81%, $38 million).
Looking ahead, two sizable IPOs are expected this week. Medtronic's diabetes insulin pump unit, MiniMed (MMED US), aims to raise up to $784 million at a $7.9 billion valuation. Speaking to Reuters, IPOX® Associate Muehlbauer highlighted that while the spin-off offers pure-play exposure to established diabetes technology, investors will demand a clear path to profitability given its recent net losses (read here). Additionally, South Korea's first internet-only bank, K Bank (279570 KS), is scheduled to raise approximately $380 million.
