SchusterWatch #813 (10/27/2025)
IPOX® 100 (ETF: FPX) adds to +40% YTD on solid start to earnings season.
Replicating pre-IPO returns with IPOX® 100 U.S. Index-linked Products.
IPOX® Japan soars +5% to +32% YTD as the New Generation surges.
Active month-end deal flow ahead as MapLight and Navan use 20-day rule.
SUMMARY: Muted U.S. inflation towards the weekend, firm bond markets and an encouraging start to earnings season drove key IPOX® Indexes higher last week with some outperforming benchmarks.
UNITED STATES: Ending on a high note after weak mid-week trading, the IPOX® 100 U.S. Index (ETF: FPX) added +2.40% to +39.79% YTD last week, extending the YTD lead vs. the S&P 500 (SPX) by +48 bps. to a massive +2432 bps. Encouraging earnings drove some of the good showing, with big gains recorded by consumer financial IPO M&A Enova (ENVA US: +14.53%) and renewable energy equipment maker Nextracker (NXT US: +12.89%). Pending corporate action speculation and industry momentum also propelled Parker Schnabel-featured “Gold Rush” producer and HBO owner Warner Bros Discovery (WBD US: +16.27%), as well as memory chip maker Sandisk (SNDK US: +32.82%). Amid profit taking ahead of earnings, nuclear & space plays such as de-SPACs AST Spacemobile (ASTS US: -11.73%), Nuscale Power (SMR US: -14.73%) and OKLO (OKLO US: -16.73%) recording double digit losses.
SPACEX, OPENAI ETC. NOW TRADE LIKE THE IPOX® 100 U.S: We note the ongoing convergence of returns between the most liquid and largest firms trading pre-IPO, such as SpaceX and OpenAI, and the IPOX® 100 U.S., key benchmark for U.S. New Listings with YTD/YY returns trading highly correlated (Fig). “The result of firms staying private for longer has been that their risk/return profile is now similar when compared to newly publicly traded firms. Liquidity-aware investors may therefore find Financial Products tied to the IPOX® 100 U.S., including the $1.2 billion “FPX” ETF (5-Star Morningstar 3-Year Rating) and CME-listed E-mini IPOX® 100 U.S. Futures (IPOZ5), particularly useful for replicating returns and hedging pre-IPO risk at a low cost”, said IPOX® 100 U.S. Index chief architect, Josef Schuster.
INTERNATIONAL: Another story of the week belonged to the continued surge in the IPOX® Japan (IPJP). With positions in highly liquid key Japanese IPO M&As of the past years centered around a number of highly attractive recent New Listings in the Japanese marketplace, the portfolio surged +5.05% to +31.77% YTD last week, +1437 bps. ahead of benchmark TOPIX (TPX). Strong earnings drove the good showing, including reports from semiconductor memory products maker and 12/24 IPO Kioxia (285A: +33.84%).
SPACS ARE HERE TO STAY: The IPOX® SPAC fell -2.86% last week, bringing its year-to-date performance to 44.56%. Online gaming and sports betting platform Rush Street Interactive (RSI US: +11.04%) led gains, rebounding from the prior week’s weakness amid renewed optimism ahead of its upcoming earnings release. Nuclear energy developer Oklo (OKLO US: -16.73%) was the worst performer as investors continued to criticize the company’s valuation disconnect from fundamentals. Two SPACs announced merger targets, including Armada Acquisition II (AACI US), which agreed to merge with Ripple (XRP coin issuer) -backed crypto treasury venture Evernorth. Two SPACs completed mergers, including HCM II Acquisition, which combined with small modular nuclear reactor developer Terrestrial Energy, expected to begin trading on Monday. Four new SPAC IPOs were launched in the U.S. during the week. 11/2022 deSPAC social networking platform Grindr (GRND US: +16.20%) rose after receiving a privatization proposal from its founder, valuing the company at a 20.8% premium to the prior close, following weeks of share price pressure.
ECM DEALS: 21 companies went public globally last week, raising a combined $1.85 billion. New listings advanced an average +45.38% from offer to Friday’s close (Median: +12.00%). Deal flow was centered in Asia, which continued to dominate global issuance. The largest accessible offerings included IoT chipmaker Fibocom Wireless (638 HK: +18.44%, $374 million offer), SaaS platform JST Group (6687 HK: +11.57%, $268 million), pharmaceutical manufacturer Haixi Pharma (2637 HK: +7.96%, $128 million), and Japanese fintech Infcurion (438A JP: +22.64%, $76 million). Upcoming sizable listings in our IPO Calendar amid a busy end to October include Chinese tea retailer Bama Tea (6980 HK, $58 million offer), AI solutions provider Deepexi Technology (1384 HK, $91 million), Japanese personal care distributor BJC (440A JP, $71 million), telecom equipment maker CIG (6166 HK, $594 million), and heavy machinery leader Sany Heavy Industry (6031 HK, $1.59 billion). In the U.S., corporate travel platform Navan (NAVN US, $960 million) and CNS drug developer MapLight Therapeutics (MPLT US, $251 million) will debut under the SEC’s temporary “20-day rule”. Industrial materials firm AIS (AIH AU, $99 million) is set to launch in Australia.
