SchusterWatch #807 (9/22/2025)
IPOX U.S. Indexes soar during Fed, Sep. Futures expiration week.
IPOX® 100 U.S. (ETF: FPX) benchmark leaps +3.65% to +37.22% YTD.
IPOX® SPAC has 3rd best week ever: rockets +9.10% to +38.76% YTD.
SMG’s $1.12B IPO re-opens European market, U.S. deals raised $2.7 billion.
SUMMARY: Our portfolio focused on U.S. domiciled stocks ranked on top of the IPOX® Indexes last week, as the Fed cut rates, U.S. rates rose and AI-Momentum across sectors continued its unabated Momentum. Outside the IPOX® Indexes portfolio holdings, we note the big (AI-driven) declines in select Financial Services Analytics/Data providers FactSet (FDS US: -20.09%), Morningstar (MORN US: -8.55%) and MSCI (MSCI US: -4.03%), as Stock Exchanges lagged as well.
UNITED STATES: The All-Cap Momentum IPOX® 100 U.S. (BBG: IPXO) surged +3.65% to +37.22% YTD as IPOX® heavyweights AppLovin (APP US: +11.61%) and trading platform Robinhood (HOOD US: +8.48%) continued to soar into Friday’s S&P 500 Index (SPX) inclusion and select de-SPACs rocketed on industry optimism.
65 of 100 portfolio holdings rose, with the average (median) stock adding +2.65% (+1.58%), lagging the applied market-cap weighted IPOX® 100 U.S. (ETF: FPX) for the second week in a row. Instacart operator Maplebear (CART US: -10.48%), coffee chain Dutch Bros (BROS US: -9.19%) and language app Duolingo (DUOL US: -5.52%) ranked amongst the worst performers. Assets tied to the IPOX® 100 U.S.-linked “FPX” ETF soared to a fresh high. In related strategies, big gains extended to our actively managed IPOX® Alpha Plus (IPXT), while the IPOX® SPAC (SPAC) had its 3rd best week on record, propelled by massive gains in nuclear energy-linked holdings, as well as Space-play AST Spacemobile (ASTS US: +16.48%) and LA-based innovative financial services firm SOFI Technologies (SOFI US: +11.15%).
IPOX® EX THE U.S.: Outside the U.S., mining and select technology stocks gained anew, while the IPOX® Japan (IPJP) extended its massive run on the back of recent IPOs and a slew of IPO M&As, now +830 bps. YTD ahead of the TOPIX (TPX), benchmark for Japanese stocks. IPOX® Holdings in focus here included London-traded spin-off Valterra Platinum (VALT LN: +8.01%), IPO M&As Agnico-Eagle Mines (AEM US: +5.18%) and Shandong Gold Mining (1787 HK: +3.36%), as well as semiconductor maker Advantest Corp. (6857 JP: +9.64%). Amid (perceived) legal overhang/sector weakness, in line with its de-facto U.S. counterpart Spin-off and embattled Tylenol maker Kenvue (KVUE US: -3.42%), British Spin-off Haleon (HLN LN: -6.49%) fell to a one-year low. A good week for Saudi hospital operator Dr. Sulaiman Al-Habib (SULAIMAN AB: +8.69%) cut the declines in the IPOX® MENA (IPEV) to -9.81% YTD.
SPACS ARE HERE TO STAY: The Index surged +9.10% last week, bringing its year-to-date performance to 38.76%. Nuclear energy developer Oklo (OKLO US: +65.50%) soared to an all-time-high amid rising investor enthusiasm around AI-driven energy demand. Aerospace company Rocket Lab (RKLB US: -10.40%) fell after announcing an additional share sale. Two SPACs announced targets, including ESHA Acquisition (ESHA US: -10.40%), which agreed to merge with Glasgow, Scotland-based fitness platform The Original Fit Factory. No mergers were completed during the week. Two new SPAC IPOs were launched in the US during the week.
ECM DEALS: 30 companies went public globally last week, raising $5.6 billion. The average new listing advanced +39.73% from offer price to Friday’s close (Median: +18.67%). The largest IPO was Switzerland’s online classifieds operator SMG Swiss Marketplace Group (SMG SW: +6.52%), which raised $1.12 billion. In the U.S., cybersecurity firm Netskope (NTSK US: +30.00%, $908 million) enjoyed a strong debut, while ticketing platform StubHub (STUB US: -21.45%, $800 million) slumped. Oil and gas services provider WaterBridge Infrastructure (WBI US: +15.40%) and e-commerce accelerator Pattern Group (PTRN US: +11.64%) raised $729 million and $300 million, respectively. In Hong Kong, autonomous vehicle LiDAR maker Hesai Group (2525 HK: +7.24%) raised $614 million. Click the links above to read about IPOX® commentary on the deals in coverage by Bloomberg and Reuters.
Looking ahead, deal flow shifts toward Asia this week. In Hong Kong, baby stroller-maker Butong Group (6090 HK, $100 million) debuts on September 23, followed by the car manufacturer Chery Automobile (9973 HK, $1.18 billion) on September 25. Japan is set to see two listings: beer producer Orion Breweries (409A JP, $113 million) and infrastructure contractor UNICON Holdings (407A JP, $34 million). Indonesia will host its largest deal of the year with gold miner Merdeka Gold Resources (EMAS IJ, $286 million) on September 23.
IPO NEWS: IPOX® CEO Josef Schuster featured in Bloomberg coverage on strong outperformance of the IPOX® 100 U.S. Index as a catalyst for renewed issuance (read here), while Barron’s highlighted our focus on identifying long-term winners in the IPO market. (read more here).
